According to Turkey’s election laws, no candidate was able to obtain 50% of the votes, which means the final decision on the next president will be made on May 28th. However, Erdogan has gained a psychological advantage over his opponents.
The parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey last Sunday. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s competition was with the leader of the United Opposition Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. However, according to Turkey’s election laws, no candidate could secure 50% of the votes, so the final decision on the next president will be made in the runoff on May 28th. Nevertheless, Erdogan has gained a psychological advantage over his opponents.
In this regard, an analysis has been presented in Arab media, stating that in the opinion of most analysts, it will be difficult for Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his alliance of six parties to defeat Erdogan in the upcoming runoff on May 28th.
On President Erdogan’s “remarkable victory,” the economic expert Timothée Ish said that presidents have such skills that the Turkish people support them regardless of whether they are nationalists or populists.
Walter Prencipe, director of the American consulting firm Tenio, says that Erdogan has already achieved a clear psychological advantage over his opponents, and in the coming weeks, they will further promote their national health narratives. According to estimates from the research firm Eurasia Group affiliated with Emre Peker, there is an 80% chance of Erdogan’s success in the runoff, meaning the second phase of the elections.
According to Emre Peker’s estimates, it is evident from the preliminary results that Erdogan and his allies have successfully reached out to the public by addressing issues of terrorism, security, and family destinies, despite the fact that voters’ biggest concern is the economy.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s loyal supporter, Hamid Koru, expressed his happiness by saying, “Only Erdogan will win. He is the true leader. The Turkish people trust him, and he has a vision for Turkey. Erdogan’s voters have said that there is definitely a need for improvement in policies related to the economy, education, and refugees, but we believe that he can find solutions to all these issues.”
In the opinion polls, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan’s rival, was predicted to win. However, consultant Anthony Skinner says that the results of the surveys have highlighted the difficulty of knowing public opinion in a highly divided society.
He said that most of the results from the public surveys conducted before the elections do not accurately reflect the level of support Erdogan has obtained, and it is also evident that extreme caution should be exercised in interpreting the forthcoming public opinion before the elections.
Contrary to the public opinion polls revealed before the elections and despite the worst economic crisis in Turkey, President Erdogan has received 49.5% of the votes, while his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu has received 44.9% and the nationalist candidate Meral Aksener has received 5.2% of the votes, with an overall voter turnout of 88%.
President Erdogan is hopeful for the upcoming runoff and urges voters to cast their votes again, while opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has said that they will accept whatever decision is made on May 28th.